[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 May 21 issued 2343 UT on 17 May 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 18 09:43:53 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 May. AR2822
(Hsx/Alpha) is now the only spotted region on the visible disk
of the Sun and is approaching the North Western limb. However
there is a new region just appearing on the North Eastern limb
that is showing flare potential with a series of weak B-class
flares. There were no significant Earth directed CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph images up to 17/1436 UT. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 18-20 May
with a slight chance of C-class flares. On the UT day 17 May
the solar wind was slightly enhanced for the first half of the
day peaking at 425 km/s, but dropped down to 330 km/s at 14 UT.
Then there was a sudden jump in solar wind speed from 330 km/s
to 350 km/s at 1545 UT, with a corresponding increase in density
and the IMF component (Bz) was mostly southwards from 16-20 UT.
This weak shock was most likely the arrival of the 13 May CME.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4/-8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be enhanced on UT days 18-20 May due to an equatorial coronal
hole wind stream. The slow 14 May CME is expected to arrive on
18 May but only weak effects are expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11100222
Cocos Island 2 01100221
Darwin 3 11101212
Townsville 4 11110222
Learmonth 4 11101222
Alice Springs 3 11100122
Gingin 4 11100232
Canberra 2 11100121
Hobart 3 11110122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00110011
Casey 6 23211122
Mawson 18 23312255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1002 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 20 Quit to Active with possible minor storm periods.
19 May 20 Quit to Active with possible minor storm periods.
20 May 12 Quit to unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 17-18 May. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were mostly quiet on UT day 17 May. In the Antarctic region
mostly quiet to unsettled levels with one minor storm period
were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be quiet to active with possible minor storm periods on UT days
18-19 May, due to coronal hole effects plus the possible arrival
of a weak CME that occurred on 14 May. Mostly quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions with possible active periods are expected
on UT day 20 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 18-20 May with some possible mild to moderate degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 17 May were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the
Niue Island Region occurring during the local day. There were
also some moderate enhancements in the Southern Australian region
during the local night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT days 18-20 May with some possible mild to
moderate depressions due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 64600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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