[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 17 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 May. AR2822
(Hsx/Alpha) continues to decay and is now the only spotted region
on the visible disk of the Sun. There were no Earth directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 17-19 May.
On the UT day 16 May the solar wind followed a decreasing trend
from 420 km/s down to 315 km/s, but started increasing again
at 20 UT up to 400 km/s and is now 370 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked
at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to become slightly enhanced
late on UT day 17 May due to a Southern Polar coronal hole extension.
Then the solar wind speed is expected to become moderately elevated
on UT days 18-19 May due to an equatorial coronal hole wind stream.
The slow 13 May CME could impact on the 17 May, while the 14
May CME is expected to arrive on 18 May but only weak effects
are expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 2 00020121
Cocos Island 2 00021110
Darwin 2 10020121
Townsville 3 11020122
Learmonth 2 00020120
Alice Springs 2 00020021
Gingin 1 00020020
Canberra 2 00030020
Hobart 3 00031020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 4 00041010
Casey 6 22232120
Mawson 11 31122144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3132 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
18 May 18 Unsettled to active with possible minor storm
periods
19 May 18 Unsettled to active with possible minor storm
periods
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 15 May and
is current for 17-18 May. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet on UT day 16 May. In the Antarctic region quiet
to active levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active
periods on UT day 17 May. Then mostly unsettled to active conditions
with possible minor storm periods are expected on UT days 18-19
May, due to coronal hole effects plus the possible arrival of
weak CMEs that occurred on 13 May and 14 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 17-19 May with some possible mild degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 16 May were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions occurring
during the local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT days 17-19 May with some possible mild MUF
depressions during the local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 95500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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