[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 May 21 issued 2356 UT on 20 May 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 21 09:56:47 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 May. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk of the Sun:
2824 (Cao/Beta). A small filament eruption was observed around
01 UT near S30E05 in the H-alpha images. There was a weak CME
signature in the Lasco images that may be associated with this
filament eruption. This CME is analysed as very weak which makes
any impact very uncertain. There were no other significant Earth
directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar
activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance of a
C-class flare for the next three UT days 21-23 May. On the UT
day 20 May the solar wind speed increased from 325 km/s up to
565 km/s due to the wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 18 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +17/-14 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
stay moderately enhanced on UT day 21 May and then gradually
decrease to background levels on UT days 22-23 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Active
with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 14 21243433
Cocos Island 11 21133432
Darwin 10 21233332
Townsville 13 22243333
Learmonth 19 02254443
Alice Springs 13 21243333
Gingin 23 21253553
Canberra 14 21344332
Hobart 17 21354332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 30 12465533
Casey 14 23243333
Mawson 56 55354576
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2110 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 15 Quiet to active with a slight chance of a minor
storm period.
22 May 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
23 May 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active with some isolated minor storm periods on UT
day 20 May. Major storm periods were observed in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet to active with a slight chance of a minor storm period
on UT day 21 May due to continued effects from the coronal hole.
Then quiet to unsettled levels with possible active periods are
expected on UT day 22 May. Followed by mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions on UT day 23 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in HF propagation conditions
may occur on UT days 21-22 May. Then mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected on UT day 23 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 20 May were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the
Niue Island region during the local day. There were also some
moderate enhancements in the Australian region during the local
night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values with some mild to moderate depressions on UT days 21-22
May. Then mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 23 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 58900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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