[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 7 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 6 May with just
a few weak B-class flares. Currently the visible disk of the
Sun is spotless with no active regions. There were no Earth directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 7-9 May.
On UT day 6 May, the solar wind speed range was 315 km/s to 335
km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) range was +6/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to stay at background levels on UT days 7-9 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 1 11101000
Learmonth 2 11112100
Alice Springs 1 11001000
Gingin 1 11100---
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 10011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00012000
Casey 3 12211100
Mawson 3 11111211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 7 Quiet
08 May 7 Quiet
09 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet levels on UT day 6 May. Quiet levels were observed in
the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are
expected on UT days 7-9 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 7-9 May with some possible mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 6 May were mostly
near predicted monthly values, with some moderate depressions
in the Niue Island region after local dawn and some mild enhancements
in the Antarctic region. In the Australian region, MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values on UT days 7-9 May with some
possible mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 69000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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