[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 May 21 issued 2331 UT on 05 May 2021

Thu May 6 09:31:06 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 May. Currently 
the visible disk of the Sun is spotless with no active regions. 
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
images. A low level B-class flare around 2230 UT from near the 
northeast limb may have triggered a CME. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low for the next three UT days 6-8 May. On UT day 
5 May, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 
420 km/s down to 300 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the 
north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +3/-2 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to be stay at background levels on UT 
days 6-8 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000001
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               2   10100012
      Townsville           1   01100011
      Learmonth            0   00000001
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Gingin               0   000000--
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   20000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12200000
      Mawson               4   31000003

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2001 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May     7    Mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled 
                periods
07 May     7    Mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled 
                periods
08 May     7    Mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled 
                periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at quiet levels on UT day 5 May. Quiet to unsettled levels were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions 
with possible isolated unsettled periods are expected on UT days 
6-8 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 6-8 May with some possible mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 May     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May     5    Near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.
07 May     5    Near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.
08 May     5    Near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 5 May were mostly 
near predicted monthly values, with some moderate depressions 
in the Niue Island region during the local night and some mild 
enhancements in the Southern Australian region during the local 
night. In the Australian region, MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values on UT days 6-8 May with some possible 
mild depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    76300 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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