[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 5 09:30:16 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 May. Currently
the visible disk of the Sun is spotless with no active regions.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
three UT days 5-7 May. On UT day 4 May, the solar wind speed
was between 395 km/s and 495 km/s due to coronal hole effects.
The IMF (Bt) ranged from 1 nT to 7 nT. The north-south component
of IMF (Bz) range was +6/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be slightly enhanced on UT day 5 May and then decrease to
background levels on UT days 6-7 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110010
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 3 21210011
Learmonth 2 21110010
Alice Springs 2 11110011
Gingin 1 10100020
Canberra 1 10110010
Hobart 1 10110010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 1 10020000
Casey 5 32210121
Mawson 6 21212231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 3331 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 May 7 Quiet
07 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet levels on UT day 4 May. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions are expected on UT day 5 May due to coronal hole effects.
Then mostly quiet conditions are expected on UT days 6-7 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 5-7 May with some possible mild depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 5 Near predicted monthly values with some possible
mild depressions
06 May 5 Near predicted monthly values with some possible
mild depressions
07 May 5 Near predicted monthly values with some possible
mild depressions
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 4 May were mostly
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions. Sporadic
E was observed at the Townsville and Darwin stations during 4-12
UT. In the Australian region, MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT days 5-7 May with some possible mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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