[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 4 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 74/11 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 May. Currently
the visible disk of the Sun is spotless with no active regions.
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
three UT days 4-6 May. On UT day 3 May, the solar wind speed
increased from 350 km/s to 500 km/s due to coronal hole effects.
The IMF (Bt) ranged from 2 nT to 14 nT. The north-south component
of IMF (Bz) range was +12/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to stay moderately enhanced during UT days 4-5 May and then gradually
return to background levels on UT day 6 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22210100
Cocos Island 3 22210100
Darwin 3 22210101
Townsville 5 32320100
Learmonth 4 22320100
Alice Springs 3 22210100
Gingin 3 2121010-
Canberra 2 21210100
Hobart 2 11210100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 1 10101000
Casey 7 33321100
Mawson 6 21222203
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 9 3331 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 12 Quiet to active with a possible isolated minor
storm period
05 May 10 Quiet to unsettled with a possible active period
06 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at mostly quiet levels on UT day 3 May with a few isolated unsettled
periods. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic
region. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected on
UT day 4 May with a possible isolated minor storm period due
to coronal hole effects. Then mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on UT days 5-6 May as coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 4 May. Mild depressions in HF propagation conditions
are possible on UT days 5-6 May due to the expected rise in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 3 May were mostly
near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate depressions
during the local day. In the Australian region, MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values on UT day 4 May. Mild MUF
depressions are possible on UT days 5-6 May due to the expected
rise in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 15.6 p/cc Temp: 74600 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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