[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 3 09:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 2 May. Currently
there is no numbered region visible on the solar disk. There
were two non-earthward directed CMEs in the Lasco and Stereo-A
images at 2/6 UT and 2/12 UT in the North East quadrant. There
were no other CMEs in the available coronagraph images. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days
3-5 May. On UT day 2 May, the solar wind speed was between 310
km/s and 380 km/s. The IMF (Bt) ranged from 6 nT to 10 nT. The
north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +9/-7 nT and mostly
southwards during 0-5UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
stay moderately enhanced during UT days 3-5 May due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 7 32321211
Cocos Island 5 21311211
Darwin 8 32321221
Townsville 8 32321222
Learmonth 8 32321221
Alice Springs 7 32321211
Gingin 4 22310110
Canberra 5 22310111
Hobart 4 22310001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 3 12310000
Casey 6 32321100
Mawson 26 66422211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1112 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 12 Quiet to Active
04 May 12 Quiet to Active
05 May 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 2 May. Quiet to active
levels with two storm period were observed in the Antarctic region.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT days
3-5 May due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions in HF propagation conditions
are possible on UT days 3-5 May due to the expected increase
in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 May 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
05 May 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 2 May were mostly
near predicted monthly values with some moderate depressions
in the Niue Island region and mild enhancements in the Southern
Australian region. In the Australian region, mild to moderate
MUF depressions are possible on UT days 3-5 May due to the expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 38500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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