[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 8 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/-- 1904UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity has reached moderate level on UT day
7 May due to an M3.9 flare produced by AR2822. Currently AR2822
is the only spotted region on the visible disk of the Sun. There
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for
the next three UT days, 8-10 May. On UT day 7 May, the solar
wind speed range was 290-330 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +5/-3 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to stay near its background
levels on UT days 8-10 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 1 11--0000
Darwin 1 11101000
Townsville 1 01101001
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 01100010
Mawson 0 00000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1101 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 7 Quiet
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 7 May. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic
conditions are expected on UT days 8-10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 8-10 May with some possible mild to moderate depressions,
mostly at high latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. Fadeouts
are possible in the sunlit regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
09 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 7 May were mostly
near predicted monthly values, with some mild depressions in
the Northern Australian region. In the Australian region, MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 8-10 May with some possible mild to moderate depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 16700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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