[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 8 09:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/--    1904UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity has reached moderate level on UT day 
7 May due to an M3.9 flare produced by AR2822. Currently AR2822 
is the only spotted region on the visible disk of the Sun. There 
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
images. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for 
the next three UT days, 8-10 May. On UT day 7 May, the solar 
wind speed range was 290-330 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT 
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +5/-3 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to stay near its background 
levels on UT days 8-10 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000000
      Cocos Island         1   11--0000
      Darwin               1   11101000
      Townsville           1   01101001
      Learmonth            0   00000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00100000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   01100010
      Mawson               0   00000000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1101 2201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     7    Quiet
09 May     7    Quiet
10 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 7 May. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on UT days 8-10 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 8-10 May with some possible mild to moderate depressions, 
mostly at high latitudes in the Northern hemisphere. Fadeouts 
are possible in the sunlit regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
09 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
10 May     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 7 May were mostly 
near predicted monthly values, with some mild depressions in 
the Northern Australian region. In the Australian region, MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 8-10 May with some possible mild to moderate depressions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    16700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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