[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 27 10:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 77/16 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 March. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a small chance
of C-class activity for the next three UT days, 27-29 March.
On UT day 26 March, the solar wind speed gradually reduced from
490 km/s to 390 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) and the north-south
IMF (Bz) ranges were 3 to 5 nT and +1/-4 nT, respectively. Bz
stayed southwards almost the whole day. Moderate enhancements
to the solar wind speed are expected on 27 March due to a faint
CME observed on 22 March along with possible coronal hole effects.
On UT days 28 and 29 March, coronal hole effects are expected
to continue to keep the solar wind speed moderately enhanced,
with the possibility of some stronger enhancements at times.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22332111
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 7 22332111
Learmonth 6 22321211
Alice Springs 6 22231111
Gingin 7 21332211
Canberra 7 22332111
Hobart 8 22332211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 15 12454211
Casey 9 34222112
Mawson 26 45332445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 16 5432 4102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
28 Mar 20 Mostly unsettled to active, isolated minor storm
periods possible
29 Mar 15 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26 March. Mostly quiet to active conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region with 3 periods of minor
storm levels on two stations. On UT days 27 to 29 March, geomagnetic
activity is expected to vary mostly between quiet and active
levels, with some possibility of isolated minor storm periods
on 28 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 26 March, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 27-29 March with the possibility of minor to
mild MUF depressions on 29 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 26 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
near predicted monthly values. MUFs in this region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 27-29 March
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 29 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 82700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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