[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 March 21 issued 2338 UT on 25 Mar 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 26 10:38:54 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 March. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, 2810,
2811, and 2812. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low for the next three UT days, 26-28 March. On UT day 25
March, the solar wind speed was almost steady, varying in the
range 400-470 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF
(Bz) ranges were 4-7 nT and +/-6 nT, respectively. The north-south
IMF (Bz) was mostly negative up to ~1240 UT and at the end of
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to vary near its
nominal levels on UT days 26-27 March. Moderate enhancements
are likely on 26-27 March due to a faint CME observed on 22 March
and coronal hole effects. Moderately elevated solar wind speed
is expected for 28 March due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22223101
Darwin 6 22223101
Townsville 8 13224111
Learmonth 9 32323202
Alice Springs 7 22224101
Gingin 7 32223102
Canberra 6 22223101
Hobart 9 22324102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 16 33435201
Casey 10 33223203
Mawson 26 44443216
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3332 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 12 Unsettled
27 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 25 March. Mostly quiet to active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. On UT days
26-27 March, global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels. Active periods are possible on
26-27 March due to the 22 March CME and coronal hole effects.
On 28 March active conditions are expected with possible minor
storm periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT days
26-27 March. Degraded conditions are possible on 28 March due
to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 25 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 26-28 March. Elevated
MUFs are possible on 28 March due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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