[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 25 10:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 March. There 
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, 2810, 
2811, and 2812. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
for the next three UT days, 25-27 March, with a chance of a C-class 
flare. From 24/0000 UT to 24/19:17 UT, the solar wind speed followed 
a decreasing trend from 460 km/s down to 370 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF (Bz) ranges were 1-5 nT and 
+2/-4 nT, respectively. At 19:17 UT a shocklike feature was observed. 
The solar wind speed increased to 440 km/s; Bt and Bz peaked 
at 8 nT and -7 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed is expected 
to vary near its nominal levels on UT days 25-26 March. However, 
slight enhancements may happen on 26 and 27 March due to a 22 
March CME and coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221022
      Cocos Island         5   12221022
      Darwin               5   12221122
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            5   22221022
      Alice Springs        5   12221022
      Gingin               5   222220--
      Canberra             5   12221022
      Hobart               5   12222022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     9   12334011
      Casey               11   23422123
      Mawson              39   64343227

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3321 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 24 March. Quiet to storm conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region. On UT days 25-27 March, global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. 
Isolated active periods are possible on 26-27 March due to the 
22 March CME and coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT days 
25-27 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 24 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with mild depressions. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 25-27 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   195000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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