[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 15 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 March. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk; 2808
(N18E08) and 2809 (S23W19). Solar activity is expected to be
very low for the next three UT days 15-17 March. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO coronagraph images.
The solar wind speed was at moderately enhanced levels between
520 km/s and 590 km/s. This is in response to a HSS emanating
from a Southern Polar coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) peaked
at 6 nT; the north-south IMF (Bz) was in range +3/-6 nT. The
IMF Bz component was southwards for most of the time during the
day. Solar wind speed is expected continue on a weakly declining
trend but stay at slightly to moderately enhanced levels today
15 March. Then solar wind speed is expected to continue declining
down to background levels on UT day 16 March as the coronal hole
effects fade. However on UT day 17 March another Northern Polar
coronal hole may become geoeffective and the solar wind speed
is likely to increase to moderately enhanced levels again.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 23342323
Cocos Island 10 22322323
Darwin 11 23332322
Townsville 16 24442323
Learmonth 18 34342334
Alice Springs 13 23342323
Gingin 18 33342434
Canberra 14 24342322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 34 35464533
Casey 17 34433233
Mawson 83 57643677
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 3433 1343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 14 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
COMMENT: Quiet to active conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14 March. Unsettled to major storm levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. The disturbed periods were
caused by a Southern Polar coronal hole. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
on UT day 15 March due to continuing coronal hole effects. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on UT day 16 March.
However on UT day 17 March a Northern Polar coronal hole could
cause quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some degradation in HF conditions may be observed at
high and mid latitudes on UT day 15 March due to the recent geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT day
16 March. Some degradation in HF conditions may be observed at
high and mid latitudes on UT day 17 March due to forecast geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 14 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed
at times at some stations. Mild MUF depressions may occur on
UT day 15 March in response to recent geomagnetic activity. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 16-17 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 14.1 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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