[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 21 issued 2333 UT on 13 Mar 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 14 10:33:33 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 March. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk;  2808 
(N18E20), and 2809 (S23W07). Solar activity is expected to be 
very low for the next three UT days, 14-16 March. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO coronagraph images. 
The solar wind speed was near its nominal levels till 13/1200 
UT and from thereon increased gradually to moderately elevated 
levels. The current solar wind speed is near 570 km/s. This is 
in response to arrival of high-speed streams emanating from a 
Southern Polar Coronal hole.  The total IMF (Bt) varied between 
4 nT and 15 nT; the north-south IMF (Bz) was in range +9/-11 
nT. There was a short-lived period (13/0300 UT - 13/0430 UT) 
of significant IMF Bz southward condition associated with the 
CIR from the coronal hole.  Solar wind speed is expected to stay 
near its moderately enhanced level today, 14 March due to coronal 
hole effects. The solar wind speed is expected to decline from 
late UT day 14 March as the coronal hole effects begin to fade.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   34231322
      Cocos Island         9   23221332
      Darwin              11   34232221
      Townsville          13   34332322
      Learmonth           13   34232332
      Alice Springs       10   23331321
      Gingin              11   33231332
      Canberra            12   24331322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    16   24352322
      Casey               21   45522233
      Mawson              44   45423376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   1232 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    12    Unsettled
15 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active conditions were observed in the 
Australian region on UT day 13 March. Unsettled to minor storm 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The disturbed periods 
were caused by the arrival of the coronal hole effects. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled today 
(14 March), with a chance of isolated active periods, due to 
the coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet and isolated unsettled 
periods are expected on UT days 15-16 March.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some degradation in HF conditions may be observed at 
high and mid latitudes on UT day 14 March due to the recent geomagnetic 
activity. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected from UT day 
15 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 13 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near mildly depressed levels in response to the disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole. Sporadic 
E was observed at times at some stations.  Mild MUF depressions 
might continue on UT day 14 March in response to recent increase 
in geomagnetic activity. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 15-16 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 350 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    44200 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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