[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 16 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 March. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk; 2808
(N18W05) and 2809 (S23W32). Region 2808 produced a B3 flare at
15/1005UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the
next three UT days 16-18 March. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO coronagraph images. The solar wind speed
followed a decreasing trend from 567 km/s down to 425 km/s due
to waning coronal hole effects. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at
6 nT; the north-south IMF (Bz) was in the range +5/-4 nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to continue declining down to background
levels today 16 March. However on UT day 17 March a Northern
Polar coronal hole with low latitude extensions may become geoeffective
causing the solar wind speed to be at moderately enhanced levels
on UT days 17-18 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22121200
Cocos Island 2 21010210
Darwin 2 21111100
Townsville 4 03221200
Learmonth 5 31121211
Alice Springs 4 22121200
Gingin 6 32121310
Canberra 5 21231200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 21351100
Casey 12 44321311
Mawson 21 34423335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 4543 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
18 Mar 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
COMMENT: Quiet conditions with some unsettled periods were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 15 March. Quiet to active
levels with two minor storm periods were observed in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet
to unsettled on UT day 16 March. However on UT days 17-18 March
a Northern Polar coronal hole with low latitude extensions may
cause quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT days
16-17 March. Some degradation in HF conditions may be observed
at high and mid latitudes on UT day 18 March due to forecast
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 15 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
depressions. Sporadic E was observed at times at some stations. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 16-17 March. Mild MUF depressions may
occur on UT day 18 March in response to forecast geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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