[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 4 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 3 March. There are
two spotted regions on the visible disk AR2806 (S31W12 Dso/beta)
and AR2807 (S19E33 Dso/beta). AR2807 produced one C1.2 flare
peaking at 03/0003 UT as well as multiple mid-level B-class flares.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three
UT days 4-6 March with a chance of a C-class flare. There were
no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
images. On 3 March, the solar wind speed decreased gradually
from 674 km/s to 565 km/s in response to waning Southern Polar
coronal hole effects. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was +3/-6 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue gradually decreasing
on UT day 4 March. Then the solar wind speed is expected to be
elevated again to moderately enhanced levels late on UT day 4
March or on UT day 5 March as a large equatorial coronal hole
moves into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 33423212
Cocos Island 11 32423212
Darwin 10 33323112
Townsville 13 33433212
Learmonth 13 33324322
Alice Springs 12 33423212
Gingin 11 32323322
Canberra 13 34423212
Hobart 21 34------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie Island 29 35555312
Casey 20 54433223
Mawson 35 44543356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21 1332 3364
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 12 Initially quiet to unsettled then possibly reaching
active to minor storm conditions toward the end
of the day
05 Mar 20 Active
06 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 3 March, quiet to active conditions were observed
in the Australian region. Unsettled to storm levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. This was in response to persistent Southern
Polar coronal hole effects. On UT day 4 March geomagnetic activity
is expected to be initially quiet to unsettled then possibly
reaching active to minor storm conditions towards the end of
the day. On UT day 5 March unsettled to active levels are expected
with possible minor storms. Unsettled to active conditions are
likely on UT day 6 March. The forecasted disturbed conditions
are due to a large equatorial coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected UT days 4-6 March due to the recent and expected geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 3 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions.
Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. MUFs in the
Australian region are expected to be moderately depressed to
near predicted monthly values on UT days 4-6 March in response
to the recent and forecast geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 558 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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