[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 3 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 2 March. Solar
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days
3-5 March. There were two CMEs observed today, one starting in
Stereo-A at 02/0053UT and second CME observed in Lasco and SDO
to start at 02/1200UT. Preliminary investigations indicate that
these CMEs are unlikely to impact Earth. On 2 March, the solar
wind speed increased from 372 km/s to 670 km/s in response to
a Southern Polar coronal hole HSS. The total IMF (Bt) peaked
at 12 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range
was +8/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at moderately
enhanced levels on UT day 3 March in response to the coronal
hole. Solar wind speed is expected to decline on UT day 4 March
as the coronal hole begins to wane. Then the solar wind speed
is expected to increase again to moderately enhanced levels late
on UT day 5 March as a large equatorial coronal hole moves into
geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 22223433
Cocos Island 10 11223432
Darwin 11 22223333
Townsville 14 22333433
Learmonth 17 12323543
Alice Springs 12 12223433
Gingin 17 12223544
Canberra 10 12223333
Hobart 14 32323433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 24 12336533
Casey 25 25533434
Mawson 70 44444587
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 3644 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 20 Active
COMMENT: On UT day 2 March, quiet to active conditions with periods
of minor storms were observed in the Australian region. Unsettled
to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. On UT
day 3 March geomagnetic activity is expected to be unsettled
to active due to the Southern Polar coronal hole effects. Mostly
unsettled levels are expected on UT day 4 March. Active to minor
storm conditions are likely late on UT day 5 March due to the
possible arrival of the equatorial coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected UT days 3-5 March due to the recent and expected geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 2 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
depressions. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values on UT day 3 March with some possible
mild depressions in response to the recent geomagnetic activity.
MUFs in the Australian region should be near predicted monthly
values on UT days 4-5 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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