[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 25 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 June with just 
some weak B-class flares. Currently there is one numbered region 
on the visible disk, AR 2833 (N22W62). There is another unnumbered 
region currently at N25E50. A part of the filament in the northwest 
quadrant erupted in H-alpha and SDO images around 24/07 UT near 
N25W50 and there was a second smaller filament eruption about 
the same time near N43W25. No CMEs were observed in the Stereo-A 
coronagraph images but further analysis is required when the 
Lasco data becomes available. Solar activity is expected to be 
very low with a slight chance of a C-class flare on UT days 25-27 
June. On 24 June, the solar wind speed increased from 320 km/s 
up to 385 km/s due to weak coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) 
peaked at 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+7/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background 
levels to slightly enhanced on UT days 25-27 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000011
      Cocos Island         1   00110011
      Darwin               1   11100011
      Townsville           1   10000012
      Learmonth            1   00100011
      Alice Springs        0   00000011
      Gingin               1   00000012
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   03001000
      Casey                2   02110012
      Mawson              14   11111236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun     7    Mostly quiet
26 Jun     7    Mostly quiet
27 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 24 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 25-27 June 
with possible unsettled period due to weak coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 24-27 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jun    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 24 June were 
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 25-27 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    56300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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