[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 24 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 23 June. Currently 
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833 (N22W62). 
Another active region on the northeast limb, that has not yet 
been numbered, produced a C3.4 flare at 0707 UT. There was an 
eastward CME in Lasco and Stereo-A coronagraph images around 
23/0724 UT associated with the C3.4 flare that is not likely 
to have an Earth directed component. No other CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to on UT days 24-26 June. On 23 June, the solar wind 
speed was between 310 km/s and 375 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked 
at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-3 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels 
to slightly enhanced on UT days 24-26 June due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12110000
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               2   12110000
      Townsville           2   12110001
      Learmonth            2   12110000
      Alice Springs        1   11110000
      Gingin               1   12100000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   22100000
      Mawson               9   43111032

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2311 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun     7    Mostly Quiet
25 Jun     7    Mostly quiet
26 Jun     7    Mostly quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 23 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 24-26 June 
with possible unsettled period due to weak coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 24-26 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 23 June were 
near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 24-26 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    54500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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