[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 23 09:30:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 82/23 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 June. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833 (N23W47).
Another active region has just rotated over the northeast limb
that has not yet been numbered. There was a B3.7 flare at 0243
UT from AR 2833 and a B7.8 flare at 1310 UT that may be from
the new region. There was a weak westward CME in Lasco coronagraph
images around 22/0324 UT that may be associated with the B3.7
flare. Preliminary analysis with limited coronagraph imagery
indicates that this CME was not geoeffective. A part of the filament
in the northwest quadrant erupted in H-alpha and SDO images around
22/20 UT near N35W25. Any CME from this filament eruption has
the potential to be geoeffective from the location, but further
analysis is required when more Lasco coronagraph data becomes
available. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low to
on UT days 23-25 June. On 22 June, the solar wind speed was between
330 km/s and 390 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to increase to slightly enhanced levels on UT days 23-24
June, due to a northern polar coronal hole extension plus a small
southern hemisphere coronal hole. Then on UT day 25 June the
solar wind speed is expected to decrease to background levels
as coronal hole effects fade.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 13212000
Cocos Island 4 13212000
Darwin 5 13212101
Townsville 5 13212101
Learmonth 4 13212100
Alice Springs 4 13212000
Gingin 3 13201000
Canberra 2 12111000
Hobart 2 02121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 02221000
Casey 5 23221100
Mawson 15 34322105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 22 June. In the Antarctic region,
geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
on UT days 23-24 June, due to weak coronal hole effects. Then
on UT day 25 June mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 23-25 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 June were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the
Niue island region during the local day. There were also some
enhancements in the Southern Australian region during the local
night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on UT days 23-25 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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