[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 22 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 June. Currently 
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833 (N25W23). 
Two active regions are about to rotate over the eastern limb. 
There was a DSF observed in H-alpha and SDO images around 21/10 
UT near N12W35. There was also a weak westward CME observed in 
Lasco and Stereo-A coronagraph images around 21/1348 UT that 
may be associated with this DSF, unlikely to have any earth directed 
component. No other CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
images. A large filament in the NW quadrant is monitored for 
any eruption. Solar activity is expected to be very low to on 
UT days 22-24 June with a slight chance of a C-class flare. On 
21 June, the solar wind speed was between 330 km/s and 390 km/s. 
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be 
near background levels on UT day 22 June. A northern polar coronal 
hole extension plus a small southern hemisphere coronal hole 
may become geoeffective from UT day 23 June, elevating the solar 
wind speed to slightly enhanced levels through UT day 24 June,

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10001000
      Cocos Island         0   00010000
      Darwin               1   10101001
      Townsville           2   21001001
      Learmonth            0   10001000
      Alice Springs        0   00001000
      Gingin               0   00001010
      Canberra             0   00001000
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   11002212
      Mawson               8   32110034

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0100 1013     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     5    Quiet
23 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 21 June. Isolated unsettled and active periods 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 22 June. Unsettled 
conditions are possible on UT days 23-24 June due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 22-24 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
    Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 June were 
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions in the 
Niue island region. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values with some mild depressions on UT days 22-24 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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