[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 26 09:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 25 June with one C-class 
flare produced by AR 2833 near the western limb. Currently there 
is one more numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2835 (S18E64), 
which has produced two B-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low on UT days 26-28 June. On 25 
June, the solar wind speed range 340-430 km/s, currently the 
speed is near 390 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +6/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be near its nominal levels on UT days 26-28 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110000
      Cocos Island         2   21110000
      Darwin               2   21110000
      Townsville           2   21110001
      Learmonth            3   31210000
      Alice Springs        2   21110000
      Gingin               2   21110010
      Canberra             1   21000000
      Hobart               1   21010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   10011000
      Casey                4   22220101
      Mawson              18   63332221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   0011 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun     7    Quiet
27 Jun     7    Quiet
28 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 25 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 26-28 June 
with possible unsettled period due to weak coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 26-28 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jun    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 25 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild to moderate enhancements 
were observed in the Southern Australian region during local 
night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 26-28 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:    71400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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