[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 19 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 June. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible disc, AR 2833 (N23E04)
and AR 2834 (N21W71). No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low on UT days 19-21 June. On 18 June, the solar wind
speed range was 465-541 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue to settle over 19-21 June.
A slow CME that was first observed in LASCO images at 15/0448
UT may arrive on 20 June and moderately disturb the IMF on 20-21
June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 11233001
Cocos Island 3 11122001
Darwin 5 11133001
Townsville 6 21233001
Learmonth 8 22143002
Alice Springs 5 11233001
Gingin 7 11143002
Canberra 6 12233001
Hobart 7 12233111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 8 11244000
Casey 7 22232122
Mawson 19 44333125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2321 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 7 Quiet
20 Jun 14 Quiet. Unsettled with isolated Active periods
if the 15 June CME impacts.
21 Jun 12 Quiet. Unsettled with isolated Active periods
if the 15 June CME impacts.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 18 June. Conditions were
mostly quiet to active at high southern latitudes. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet on UT day 19 June. Unsettled
with isolated active periods are possible on 20-21 June if the
slow CME from 15 June arrives on 20 June, otherwise, mostly quiet
conditions can be expected 20-21 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 19-21 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional mild depressions.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 18 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
during local day. Sporadic E was observed at Darwin 19-21 UT.
Spread F was observed at Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Perth during
local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 19-21 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 541 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 258000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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