[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 20 09:30:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 June. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible disc, AR 2833 (N23W09)
and AR 2834 (N21W85). No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed
in the available STEREO-A coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low on UT days 20-22 June. On 19 June,
the solar wind speed range was 427-548 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked
at 4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3
nT. A step occurred in the solar wind parameters at 1755 UT but
did not significantly disturb them - the 15 June CME may be the
cause. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease to background
levels over 20 June. The slow CME that was first observed in
LASCO images at 15/0448 UT may moderately disturb the IMF on
20 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11121000
Cocos Island 0 10100000
Darwin 1 01011001
Townsville 3 12121001
Learmonth 2 11122000
Alice Springs 2 11121000
Gingin 2 10121000
Canberra 2 01121000
Hobart 2 11121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 10120000
Casey 5 22212111
Mawson 9 33311004
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 12 Quiet. Unsettled with a chance of an Active period
if the 15 June CME arrives
21 Jun 8 Mostly Quiet
22 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 19 June. Conditions were quiet to unsettled at
high southern latitudes. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet on 20-22 June. However, unsettled levels with
a chance of an isolated active period are possible on 20 June
due to a slow CME from 15 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 20-22 June. Some mildly depressed MUFs can be expected
at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed to 15%
21 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed to 15%
22 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed to 15%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 June were
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions during
local day and early evening. Sporadic E was observed at Darwin
00-01 and 04-08 UT. Spread F was observed at Brisbane, Norfolk
Is. and Perth during local night. Near predicted monthly values
with mild depressions during local day can be expected on 20-22
June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list