[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 18 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 June. Currently 
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833. There 
was a DSF in SDO images around 17/09 UT near N15E20. Also a CME 
was observed in the Lasco coronagraph images at 17/08 UT. From 
the position and direction, this CME looks to be geoeffective 
and preliminary analysis shows it may cause a glancing blow early 
on UT day 22 June. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low on UT days 18-20 June. On UT day 17 June, the 
solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 570 km/s down 
to 500 km/s due to fading coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) 
peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly enhanced 
on UT day 18 June due to persistent coronal hole effects. Then 
on UT days 19-20 June the solar wind speed is expected to decrease 
to background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12221100
      Cocos Island         2   12101100
      Darwin               3   12211101
      Townsville           4   12221101
      Learmonth            5   22222210
      Alice Springs        3   12211100
      Gingin               4   22221200
      Canberra             4   22320100
      Hobart               4   12321100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   22320000
      Casey                8   33222211
      Mawson              13   33322243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15   4433 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun     7    Mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods
20 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly quiet on UT day 17 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were at quiet to unsettled with one active period. 
On UT day 18 June, global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled due to fading coronal hole effects. 
On UT days 19-20 June, global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 18-20 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 17 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild MUF depressions 
in the Southern Australian region during the local day. There 
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region 
during the local night and in the Niue Island region after local 
dawn. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 18-20 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 572 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   448000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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