[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 12 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 June. The only
numbered regions on the visible disk are 2829 (Axx-Alpha; it
is decaying) and region 2832 (Axx-Alpha). No CMEs directed towards
the Earth were observed in the available coronagraph images.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 12-14
June. On UT day 11 June, the solar wind speed was between 330
km/s and 360 km/s. The IMF (Bt) was mildly enhanced, it peaked
at 8 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-8 nT;
Bz was mostly negative from 0000 UT to 1415 UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to stay near background levels on UT days 12-14
June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 3 21112110
Darwin 4 21122111
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 6 22222121
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Gingin 8 22232222
Canberra 5 22222111
Hobart 7 11233211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 17 02445400
Casey 5 21112122
Mawson 27 55423353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jun 7 Quiet
14 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
mostly quiet on UT day 11 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were at quiet to minor storm levels. On UT days 12-14
June, global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet with possible unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 12-14 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild enhancements
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. Mostly
normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 12-14
June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 57500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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