[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 11 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 June with a C1,1
flare at 0642 UT from a region just beyond the South Western
limb. There was also a B4.5 flare at 0900 UT from a region beyond
the North Western limb. The only numbered regions on the visible
disk are 2829 (Axx-Alpha at S20W54) that is decaying and region
2832 (Bxo-Beta at N15W13). There was a CME observed in Lasco
images at 10/0712 UT, towards the East, that is most likely associated
with the C1.1 flare and probably not directed towards the Earth,
but further analysis is required. There was another CME observed
in Lasco images at 10/0936 UT, towards the West, that is most
likely associated with the B4.5 flare and not geoeffective. No
other significant CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT
days 11-13 June. On UT day 10 June, the solar wind speed was
between 320 km/s and 365 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to stay near background levels on UT days
11-13 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 10001110
Cocos Island 1 10111100
Darwin 1 10001111
Townsville 3 11102111
Learmonth 2 10102210
Alice Springs 1 00001110
Gingin 1 00001210
Canberra 1 00001110
Hobart 1 00001210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 11111210
Mawson 3 31001111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1210 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 7 Quiet
12 Jun 5 Quiet
13 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
quiet on UT day 10 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 11-13 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 11-13 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 10 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region during the local day. There
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region
during the local night. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected on UT days 11-13 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 80700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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