[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 13 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 June. The only 
numbered regions on the visible disk are 2829 (soon rotate on 
the farside of the sun) and region 2832 (stable, N15 W40). No 
satellite coronagraph imagery was available for the last 24 hours. 
Based on data from the ground GONG H-Alpha observational network, 
no possible CMEs sources were observed. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low on UT days 13-15 June. On UT day 12 June, 
the solar wind speed was near 350 km/s up till 12/1500 UT, and 
from thereon increased to 490 km/s. This enhancement in solar 
wind is possibly due to an undetected CME. The current solar 
wind speed is near 490 km/s. The IMF (Bt) was mildly enhanced, 
it was mostly steady near 9 nT. The north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +8/-8 nT; Bz was mostly negative from 12/0000 
UT to 12/0300 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to return 
to near background levels today, UT day 13 June and remain near 
its background level on UT day 14 June. From UT day 15 June, 
the solar wind is expected to enhance as a southern coronal hole 
with extensions in the low latitude region reaches geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122201
      Cocos Island         5   22122211
      Darwin               4   12122201
      Townsville           5   22222201
      Learmonth            5   22122211
      Alice Springs        4   11222200
      Gingin               3   22111110
      Canberra             3   12122100
      Hobart               2   12112000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   12001000
      Casey                5   32121110
      Mawson              21   56321130

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3323 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     7    Quiet
14 Jun     7    Quiet
15 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were 
mostly quiet on UT day 12 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were at quiet to minor storm levels due to the moderately 
elevated solar wind speed. On UT days 13-14 June, global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled 
periods. On UT day 15 June, global geomagnetic activity may reach 
active levels with a chance of minor storms due to possible arrival 
of the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 13-14 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 12 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mostly normal HF propagation 
conditions are expected on UT days 13-15 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:    89600 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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