[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 5 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 June. There 
are two spotted regions on the visible disk, AR2827(N12W40 at 
04/22:15UT) and AR2829(S21E27 at 04/22:15UT). No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low with small possibility of 
C-class activity on UT days 05 to 07 June. On UT day 4 June, 
the solar wind speed was near background levels (between 300 
and 325 km/s) during the first half of the day and then showed 
a gradual rise to 435 km/s. After 22:15 UT, the solar wind is 
showing a declining trend. During UT day 04 June, the IMF (Bt) 
peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+6/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near 
background levels for the next three UT days, 05 to 07 June with 
a small possibility of some rise on 05 June and late on 07 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         0   10000010
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           2   21210001
      Learmonth            2   11200010
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Gingin               1   00100011
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Hobart               1   11010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey                3   12211011
      Mawson               7   12211124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville         120   (Major storm)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2232 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
06 Jun     5    Quiet
07 Jun     7    Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible 
                during late hours

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and the Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 04 June. In the Antarctic region, 
one active period was also observed. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet during UT days 05 to 07 June 
with the possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 05 June 
and some unsettled periods late on 07 June due to coronal hole 
effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 04 June were mostly near predicted monthly 
values with some mild depressions in some low latitude regions 
during local day. There were also some enhancements in mid and 
high latitude regions during local night. MUFs are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 05 to 07 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun    18    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    18    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 04 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions 
in the Northern Australian region during the local day. There 
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region 
during the local night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 05 to 07 
June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:   20.9 p/cc  Temp:    33400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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