[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 6 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 June. There
are two spotted regions on the visible disk, AR2827(N12W54 at
05/22:55UT) and AR2829(S20E12 at 05/22:55UT). No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar
activity is expected to be very low with small possibility of
C-class activity on UT days 06 to 08 June. On UT day 05 June,
the solar wind speed varied between 305 and 360 km/s while showing
a decreasing trend, the IMF (Bt) varied in the range of 3 to
7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-5 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background
levels for UT day 06 June and most parts of 07 June. Solar wind
stream may start strengthening from late on 07 June and stay
moderately strong throughout UT day 08 June due to coronal hole
effects. A brightening and movement of plasma were observed in
the south-east quadrant around 19:00 UT (relatively more clearly
visible in SDO aia 193, 211 and 335 and Halpha Cerro Tololo).
Whether a CME is associated with it, will be investigated once
the SOHO images become available for the required time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 01001001
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 2 11102001
Townsville 2 01002012
Learmonth 2 01102001
Alice Springs 0 00001001
Gingin 1 11001001
Canberra 1 01001001
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12101011
Mawson 8 31202114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 120 (Major storm)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2101 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 5 Quiet
07 Jun 7 Mostly quiet,some unsettled periods possible
during late hours
08 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and the Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 05 June. In the Antarctic region,
one unsettled and one active period were also observed. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet during
UT days 06 to 07 June with the possibility of some unsettled
periods late on 07 June due to coronal hole effects. This coronal
hole effect may keep the global geomagnetic activity enhanced
to unsettled to active levels on UT day 08 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 04 June were mostly near predicted monthly
values with some mild depressions in some low latitude regions
during local day. There were also some enhancements in mid and
high latitude regions during local night. MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 06 to 07 June.
Minor to mild MUF depressions on 08 June may be possible due
to some expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity on this
day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 05 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region during the local day. There
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region
during the local night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 06 to 07
June. Minor to mild MUF depressions on 08 June may be possible
due to some expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity on
this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 66400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list