[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 4 09:30:08 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 June. There 
are two spotted regions on the visible disk AR2827 (Csi-Beta) 
and AR2829 (Cao-Beta). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in 
the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low on UT days 4-6 June. On UT day 3 June, 
the solar wind speed was near background levels between 285 km/s 
and 315 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +6/-7 nT. The Bz component was mostly 
southwards during 4-14 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
be near background levels initially and then possibly elevated 
to slightly enhanced levels on UT days 4-6 June due to small 
equatorial coronal holes moving into geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222100
      Cocos Island         3   12111200
      Darwin               4   22212100
      Townsville           5   22222101
      Learmonth            4   22222100
      Alice Springs        3   22112100
      Gingin               4   12212200
      Canberra             3   11122100
      Hobart               4   11223100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     7   00343100
      Casey                5   12213200
      Mawson               7   13233200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville         118   (Major storm)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0110 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun     7    Quiet
06 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 3 June. In the Antarctic region, quiet to unsettled 
levels with one active period were observed. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT day 4 
June. Then mostly quiet conditions are expected on UT days 5-6 
June. Unsettled periods may be observed due to small equatorial 
coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 4-6 June. Some mild degradations may be observed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jun    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 3 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions 
in the Northern Australian region during the local day. There 
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region 
during the local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 4-6 June. Some mild MUF depressions 
may be observed due to small equatorial coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 293 km/sec  Density:   11.6 p/cc  Temp:    27400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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