[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 29 09:30:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 July. There
are two spotted regions, ARs 2846 (N26W45) and 2847 (S31W24)
on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three UT days, 29-31 July. A faint slow CME,
which was associated with a B2.5 flare at 25/0457 UT from AR2848
(N17W25) and a slow type II sweep, may have an earth directed
component and may result in a weak effect late on UT day 29 July.
One more CME has been observed from the North-West limb in LASCO
C2 images from 28/10:12 UT. This CME may have earthward directed
component. Further analysis will be done about this CME. No other
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images
during the last 24 hours. On 28 July, the solar wind speed was
mostly 320 to 350 km/s until around 04:30 UT and then went up
to 544 km/s at 20:28 , the IMF (Bt) peaked at 18 nT during the
late hours and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +14/-10
nT. These enhancements in the solar wind parameters are due to
previously anticipated coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed
is expected to stay moderately enhanced on UT 29 July day due
to the continued coronal hole effects. A gradually decline in
the solar wind parameters may be expected on 30 and 31 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 33321321
Cocos Island 8 32221330
Darwin 10 33321321
Townsville 11 33322331
Learmonth 13 33421421
Alice Springs 8 32321320
Gingin 11 33321331
Canberra 7 22321320
Hobart 8 23221321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 22212420
Casey 12 33332331
Mawson 36 64432562
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1111 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 14 Quiet to active
30 Jul 12 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet to active on UT day 28 July, with three storm
periods recorded on one Antarctic station. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to active on UT day
29 July, quiet to unsettled conditions on 30 July and quiet conditions
on 31 July may be expected. There is a small chance of weak glancing
impacts of a CME on 29 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 29-31 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 18 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 22 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 29-31 July with the possibility of minor MUF depressions
on UT day 29 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 13.0 p/cc Temp: 13000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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