[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 28 09:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 July. There 
are two spotted regions, ARs 2846 (N26W31) and 2847 (S31W13) 
on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be very 
low for the next three UT days, 28-30 July. A faint slow CME, 
which was associated with a B2.5 flare at 0457 UT from AR2848 
(N17W25) and a slow type II sweep, may have an earth directed 
component and may result in a weak effect late on UT day 29 July. 
No other earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph 
images during the last 24 hours. On 26 July, the solar wind speed 
was mostly 300 to 335 km/s, the IMF (Bt) peaked at 14 nT during 
the late hours and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+9/-2 nT. Bz and Bt increased significantly after 18 UT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to show gradual minor to moderate 
enhancements on UT 28 July day due to coronal hole effects. These 
coronal hole effects are expected to keep solar wind stream slightly 
to moderately enhanced through UT day 29 July and then gradually 
decline to background levels through UT day 30 July. The modelling 
of the CMEs launched 24 July indicate near misses of Earth, however, 
if any impacts do eventuate, they may be expected to happen on 
28 July. Another CME may have minor impact on 29 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01121012
      Cocos Island         3   11111012
      Darwin               4   12121012
      Townsville           4   11121013
      Learmonth            4   01221112
      Alice Springs        3   01121012
      Gingin               2   00111111
      Canberra             1   01111001
      Hobart               2   01111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00011001
      Casey                4   12221111
      Mawson               4   21220121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1200 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul    14    Quiet to active
29 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
30 Jul     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were quiet on UT day 27 July. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet to active on UT day 28 July, 
quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 29 July and 
mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 30 July due to 
coronal hole effects. There is a chance of glancing impacts on 
28 July from two CMEs, which may result in isolated minor storm 
periods. Another CME may have minor impact on 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 28-30 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul    18    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 27 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT days 28-30 July with the possibility of minor MUF depressions 
on UT day 28 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    26800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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