[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 27 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 July. The two
spotted regions, ARs 2846 (N26W18) and 2847 (S31W00) appear stable.
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three
UT days, 27-29 July. A faint slow CME, which was associated with
a B2.5 flare at 0457 UT from AR2848 (N17W25) and a slow type
II sweep, may have an earth directed component and may result
in a weak effect late on UT day 29 July. No other earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images. On 26 July, the
solar wind speed was mostly 310 to 360 km/s, but went up to 387
km/s at 07:13 UT, the IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +2/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels during most parts of UT
day 27 July. Minor to moderate enhancements in solar wind parameters
may start late on UT 27 day due to coronal hole effects. These
coronal hole effects are expected to keep solar wind stream moderately
enhanced through UT day 28 July and then gradually decline to
background levels through UT day 29 July. The modelling of the
CMEs launched 24 July indicate near misses of Earth, however,
if any impacts do eventuate, they may be expected to happen on
27-28 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11101001
Learmonth 1 11101001
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 2 11200011
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart 0 01001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 21200011
Mawson 12 33210144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1001 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 14 Quiet to active
29 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 26 July, with two unsettled and
two active periods recorded on one station in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet
to unsettled on UT day 27 July, quiet to active on 28 July and
quiet to unsettled with the possibility of some active periods
on 29 July due to coronal hole effects. There is a chance of
glancing impacts on 27 and 28 July from two CMEs, which may result
in isolated minor storm periods. Another CME may have minor impact
on 29 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 27-29 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 26 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 27-29 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 36500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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