[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 July 21 issued 2340 UT on 23 Jul 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 24 09:40:25 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 July. There
are six numbered regions on the visible disc: AR2844 to AR2849,
with AR2845 rotating over the west limb on 24 July. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available images on 23 July.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
three UT days, 24-26 July, with a low chance of M-class flares.
On 23 July, the solar wind speed peaked at 431 km/s, the IMF
(Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background
levels to slightly enhanced for the next three UT days, 24-26
July. There remains a chance that the CME first observed at 20/1648
UT could impact Earth, elevating the solar wind speed to moderately
enhanced levels on 24 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11010001
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 2 11100002
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00100001
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 0 01010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00121000
Casey 3 12210101
Mawson 9 22112105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1234 3121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 8 Quiet. There is still the possibility that the
20 July CME may impact. Unsettled to active conditions
could then be expected.
25 Jul 7 Quiet
26 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 23 July. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 24-26 July. There
is a diminishing chance that the 20/1648 UT CME will impact Earth.
If the impact does occur, unsettled to active levels are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 24-26 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 23 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed
at Brisbane and Norfolk Is at times during the local day and
evening. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 24-26 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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