[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 23 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    89/33              87/30              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 July with just a 
few weak C-class flares. Currently there are seven numbered regions 
on the visible disk: AR2842, AR2844, AR2845, AR2846, AR2847, 
AR2848 and AR2849. Regions 2842 and 2845 will soon rotate over 
the far-side of the sun. There was a DSF observed in H-alpha 
and SDO images around 22/1324 UT close to region 2848 near N17E10. 
There was a westward CME observed in Lasco and Stereo-A images 
around 21/2136 UT associated with a C1.3 flare from region 2845 
at 21/2005, but it was not geoeffective. There were no other 
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days, 
23-25 July with a chance of C-class flares. On 22 July, the solar 
wind speed was between 410 km/s and 485 km/s, in response to 
patchy equatorial coronal hole. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-7 nT. The IMF 
Bz component was mostly negative (southward) during 0310-1155 
UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels 
to slightly enhanced for the next three UT days, 23-25 July. 
There is a small chance that the CME at 20/1648 UT towards the 
northeast from region 2846 could cause a glancing blow at Earth 
elevating the solar wind speed to moderately enhanced levels 
on UT days 23-24 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12343110
      Cocos Island         6   12233010
      Darwin               7   12333011
      Townsville           9   12343111
      Learmonth           10   22343120
      Alice Springs        9   12343110
      Gingin              11   12344120
      Canberra             9   01443110
      Hobart              12   11543110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    25   02664110
      Casey                7   23232120
      Mawson              23   54542240

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2201 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul    15    Quiet to active
24 Jul    12    Quiet to active
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet to active on UT day 22 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were at quiet to storm levels. This was in response 
to the mildly elevated solar wind speed and prolonged IMF Bz 
southward condition. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT days 23-25 July. There 
is a small chance that the CME at 20/1648 UT towards the northeast 
from region 2846 could cause a glancing blow at Earth resulting 
in active levels on UT days 23-24 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 23-25 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jul    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul    25    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 22 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some enhancements 
in the Northern Australian and Southern Australian regions during 
the local night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 23-25 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 478 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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