[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 July 21 issued 2333 UT on 21 Jul 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 22 09:33:03 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 92/37 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 21 July with just a
few weak C-class flares. Currently there are six numbered regions
on the visible disk: AR2842, AR2844, AR2845, AR2846, AR2847 and
AR2848. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low for the next three UT days, 22-24 July with a chance of
C-class flares. On 21 July, the solar wind speed was between
450 km/s and 540 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels to slightly enhanced for
the next three UT days, 22-24 July. A small equatorial coronal
hole is expected to start impacting the Earth from UT day 22
July and can possibly cause some mild enhancements in the solar
wind speeds. There is a small chance that the CME at 20/1648
UT towards the northeast from region 2846 could cause a glancing
blow at Earth elevating the solar wind speed to moderately enhanced
levels on UT days 23-24 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22111210
Cocos Island 2 11111200
Darwin 3 21111200
Townsville 4 22111211
Learmonth 4 12112210
Alice Springs 2 21011200
Gingin 4 12112210
Canberra 3 21121200
Hobart 4 22021210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 21022300
Casey 8 33312210
Mawson 21 44224533
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2132 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jul 15 Quiet to unsettled with a chance of active periods
24 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled with a chance of active periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 21 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were at quiet to minor storm levels. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with the chance of
unsettled periods on UT days 22-24 July. There is a small chance
that the CME at 20/1648 UT towards the northeast from region
2846 could cause a glancing blow at Earth resulting in active
levels on UT days 23-24 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 22-24 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some enhancements
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 22-24 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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