[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 14 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 July. Currently 
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2839 
(N18W78), AR 2841 (S23E10), and AR2842 (N28E37). A large unstable 
filament has appeared in the northeast quadrant near N25E60. 
There was a weak slow eastward CME in Lasco images around 13/05 
UT and preliminary analysis shows it is unlikely to impact Earth. 
There was another CME towards the southwest observed in Lasco 
images around 13/16 UT. This CME appears to be from the far side 
of the Sun and is unlikely to be geoeffective. Also there was 
an eastward CME observed in Stereo-A coronagraph images around 
13/18 UT, that is unlikely to have an Earth directed component. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low on UT days 14-16 July. 
On 13 July, the solar wind speed was between 310 km/s and 370 
km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed may increase to 
moderately enhanced levels on UT days 14-15 July, due to a large 
Southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to low latitudes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010000
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               1   11011000
      Townsville           1   11111000
      Learmonth            2   21010010
      Alice Springs        0   01010000
      Gingin               0   10000010
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   11001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                2   22000011
      Mawson              19   53221045

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2111 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul    13    Quiet to active
15 Jul    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled
16 Jul     8    Mostly quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian were quiet 
on UT day 13 July. In the Antarctic region, quiet to active levels 
with two minor storm periods were observed. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet to active on UT day 14 July 
and then mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 15 July, due to 
a large Southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to low 
latitudes. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on 
UT day 16 July as coronal hole effects fade.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 14-16 July. Some mild degradations in HF propagation 
conditions are possible mainly during local daylight hours on 
UT days 14-15 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
15 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 13 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions 
in the Cocos Island region. There were also some MUF enhancements 
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. MUFs 
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 14-16 July. Some mild MUF depressions 
are possible on UT days 14-15 July, due to the expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:   15.3 p/cc  Temp:    35100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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