[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 12 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 July with just
a few B-class flares from region 2841. Currently there are three
numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2839 (N18W51), AR 2841
(S18E31), and AR2842 (N28E64). There was a weak westward CME
observed in Lasco coronagraph images around 11/07 UT and it appears
to have been produced from a region just beyond the northwest
limb on SDO images. No earthward directed CMEs were observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very
low on UT days 12-14 July with a small chance of C-class flares.
On 11 July, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend
from 440 km/s down to 310 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to increase to moderately enhanced levels
on UT days 12-14 July and then stay at enhanced levels on UT
day 14 July, due to a large Southern Polar coronal hole with
extension down to low latitudes. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 11/1710UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 01000100
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 2 11110101
Learmonth 3 021-----
Alice Springs 0 00000100
Gingin 0 00000100
Canberra 0 10000100
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12110200
Mawson 8 20000125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3310 0222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 15 Quiet to active
13 Jul 17 Unsettled to Active
14 Jul 17 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
region were quiet on UT day 11 July. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to active on UT day 12 July and then
mostly unsettled to active on UT days 13 and 14 July, due to
a large southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to low
latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 12 July. Some mild degradations in HF propagation conditions
may be observed on on UT days 13 and 14 July due to the expected
rise in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT day 12 July. Then on UT days 13 and 14 July, some mild
MUF depressions are possible due to the expected increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 87400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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