[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 21 issued 0004 UT on 11 Jul 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 11 10:04:31 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 July. No earthward 
directed CMEs were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Currently there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: 
AR 2839 (N18W39), AR 2841 (S18E43), and AR2842 (N28E74). Solar 
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 11-13 July with 
a small chance of C-class flares. On 10 July, the solar wind 
speed was between 310 km/s and 340 km/s by 0730UT and then showed 
a gradual increase to 420 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-8 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to be slightly higher than the background 
levels on UT day 11 July and moderately higher on 12 and 13 July 
due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22110211
      Cocos Island         3   21210200
      Darwin               4   22110202
      Townsville           5   22210212
      Learmonth            5   22210212
      Alice Springs        3   22100201
      Gingin               3   21100211
      Canberra             3   22100200
      Hobart               3   22100211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   01000110
      Casey                3   22100211
      Mawson              21   54110126

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2211 1202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul    14    Quiet to active
13 Jul    16    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 10 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were mostly quiet with two minor storm periods. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled 
on UT day 11 July and quiet to active levels on UT day 12 and 
13 July due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 10 July were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 11 July. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be 
expected on UT day 12 and 13 July due to expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    12    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul     7    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
13 Jul     7    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 10 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
on UT day 11 July. Minor to mild MUF depressions in the region 
may be expected on UT day 12 and 13 July due to expected rise 
in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    18200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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