[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 7 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 6 July. Region 2835
has produced two low C-class flares at 1915 UT and 2150 UT. Currently
there are 5 numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2835 (S19W83),
AR 2836 (S29W82), AR 2837 (N18W36), AR 2839 (N18E13), and AR
2840 (N27W59). A DSF was observed in H-alpha images around 06/0400
UT near S25W25. CMEs observed in Lasco images at 05/1800 UT and
06/0012 UT are unlikely to be geoeffective. There were no other
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be low on UT days 7-9 July with a small chance
of an M-class flare on 7 July. On 6 July, the solar wind speed
was between 310 km/s and 380 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8/-7 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be near its background levels
on UT days 7-9 July. The solar wind speed may be slightly enhanced
on 7 July due to minor effects from the 2 July CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 12212020
Cocos Island 3 12201020
Darwin 4 12212021
Townsville 4 12212021
Learmonth 4 22212020
Alice Springs 4 12212020
Gingin 5 12212030
Canberra 3 12202020
Hobart 3 12202020
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 01303000
Casey 7 22322121
Mawson 17 53322243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2112 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 6 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet to active. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 7-9 July. Unsettled
conditions may be observed on UT day 7 July due to minor effects
from the 2 July CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 7-9 July with a small chance of short wave fadeouts
on 7 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 6 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 7-9 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 18600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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