[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 6 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 5 July. Region 2835 
produced a C1.1 flare at 1824 UT and region 2836 produced a C1.7 
flare at 1843 UT. Currently there are four numbered regions on 
the visible disk: AR 2835 (S19W69), AR 2836 (S29W69), AR 2837 
(N18W23), and AR 2839 (N18E26). A DSF was observed in SDO images 
around 05/0029 UT near N40W20. There was a westward CME observed 
in Stereo-A images at 05/1754 UT and more analysis is required 
when the Lasco data become available. There were no other CMEs 
observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate on UT days 6-7 July and then 
low on UT day 8 July. On 05 July, the solar wind speed was between 
310 km/s and 350 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +7/-8 nT. There was a sudden jump 
in solar wind speed from 310 km/s to 335 km/s at 05/0025 UT with 
the corresponding jump in density. The IMF Bz component was mostly 
southwards since 5/1200 UT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near its background levels on UT days 06-08 July. The solar 
wind speed may be slightly enhanced on UT day 07 July due to 
minor effects from the 02 July CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21121222
      Cocos Island         4   21221111
      Darwin               5   21121222
      Townsville           7   22131222
      Learmonth            6   21131122
      Alice Springs        5   21121222
      Gingin               5   21121222
      Canberra             5   11121222
      Hobart               5   11121222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00002121
      Casey                6   22112222
      Mawson              25   22111347

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1210 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul     7    Quiet
07 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly quiet on UT day 05 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were at quiet to storm levels. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 06-08 July. 
Unsettled conditions may be observed on UT day 07 July due to 
minor effects from the 02 July CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 06-08 July with a small chance of a short wave fadeout.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jul    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 05 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 06-08 July. There 
is a small chance of a short wave fadeout.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    18300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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