[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 8 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 7 July with just
a few B-class flares from regions 2835 and 2837. Currently there
are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2837 (N18W49),
AR 2839 (N18W00) and AR 2840 (N27W72). A DSF was observed in
H-alpha and SDO images around 7/0300 UT near S33W35. Another
larger DSF was observed in H-alpha and SDO images around 7/1700
UT near N30E40. There was a westward CME observed in Lasco and
Stereo-A images at 7/1546 UT. Preliminary analysis shows that
this CME is not geoeffective. There were no other CMEs observed
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on UT days 8-10 July. On 7 July, the solar
wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 390 km/s down to
320 km/s, currently near 340 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-6 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to be near its background levels
on UT day 8 July and for the first part of UT day 9 July. Then
the solar wind speed may be elevated to slightly enhanced levels
late on UT day 9 July through UT day 10 July due to coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Cocos Island 3 11211111
Darwin 4 11221111
Townsville 5 12221112
Learmonth 6 11321221
Alice Springs 3 01221111
Gingin 3 01211120
Canberra 3 11221101
Hobart 4 11222110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00321000
Casey 5 22221220
Mawson 10 22331133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2231 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 7 Quiet
09 Jul 8 Quiet
10 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 7 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 8 July and for the
first part of UT day 9 July. Then unsettled conditions may be
observed late on UT day 9 July through UT day 10 July due to
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 8-10 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 7 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 8-10 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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