[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 February 21 issued 2353 UT on 21 Feb 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 22 10:53:43 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 February. Currently 
there are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR2802 
and AR2803. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low 
for the next three UT days, 22-24 February with a small chance 
of a C-class flare. The CME from an erupting filament on UT day 
20 February at 1130 UT near the central meridian at southern 
mid-latitudes has been modelled and could cause a glancing blow 
at Earth on UT day 23 February at around 12UT. There was another 
CME seen in the Lasco coronagraph images at about 21/09UT and 
has been determined to be a far side / limb side event. On UT 
day 21 February, the solar wind speed was at moderate levels, 
varying in the range of 527 km/s to 624 km/s. This disturbed 
solar wind condition is caused by a large southern polar coronal 
hole. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT; the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) was mostly negative during 21/00-14UT, varying 
in the range +5/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain 
at elevated levels due to the coronal hole effects during the 
next two UT days, 22-23 February and then expected to decline 
back to nominal levels on UT day 24 February. The CME associated 
with an erupting filament on UT day 20 February may cause some 
minor enhancements in solar wind speed on UT day 23 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   32443212
      Cocos Island         9   22333211
      Darwin              10   32333212
      Townsville          16   33443223
      Learmonth           12   32433222
      Alice Springs       12   22443212
      Gingin              14   32344222
      Canberra            13   23443212
      Hobart              13   23443212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    34   33665422
      Casey               26   55543223
      Mawson              38   55544336

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   data not available     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active
23 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active
24 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 21 February. Unsettled to 
storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to active on UT days 
22-23 February, due to waning coronal hole effects and possible 
arrival of the 20 February CME. Isolated minor storms are also 
possible. Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline gradually 
to mostly quiet levels on 24 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are 
expected on UT days 22-23 February with some mild MUF depressions 
possible. The degraded conditions are due to recent geomagnetic 
activity and CME on UT day 20 February from an erupting filament 
that may cause a glancing blow at the Earth. Mostly normal HF 
propagation conditions are expected from 24 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb     1    Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 21 February, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate 
depressions. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 22-24 February with some mild MUF depressions 
possible. Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 552 km/sec  Density:   10.5 p/cc  Temp:   269000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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