[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 February 21 issued 2347 UT on 22 Feb 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 23 10:47:15 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 February. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible solar disk, plage
region AR2803 and spotted regions AR2804 (N19W04) and AR2805
(S22E02) both Bxo/beta groups. Solar activity is expected to
be very low to low for the next three days 23-25 February. A
weak CME was observed in the Lasco-C2 and Stereo-A coronagraph
images associated with a disappearing filament in the south eastern
quadrant of the Sun at about 22/0948 UT. On 22 February, the
solar wind speed range was 534 km/s to 622 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) range was +5/-6 nT. The 20 February CME is expected to arrive
at Earth on 23 February and elevate solar wind parameters. The
solar wind speed is expected to return to background levels by
25 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 22233232
Cocos Island 9 22223232
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 14 33333332
Learmonth 11 22233233
Alice Springs 9 22233222
Gingin 10 22223233
Canberra 8 22223222
Hobart 10 23233222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 17 33354222
Casey 25 45533243
Mawson 59 75543275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 4444 4223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 26 Quiet to minor storm
24 Feb 20 Quiet to active
25 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 23 Feb only. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 22
February. Unsettled to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet
to unsettled at first. The 20 February CME is expected to arrive
on 23 February and cause active to minor storm conditions. Conditions
should subside on 24 February. Mostly quiet conditions are likely
on 25 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT days 23-24 February with some moderate MUF depressions
possible. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
from 25 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Feb -25 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
25 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 23-24 Feb. On UT day 22 February, MUFs in
the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values
with some minor depressions. Sporadic E layers were observed,
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be near predicted monthly values with depressions later on 23
and 24 February. Depressions should subside on 25 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 564 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 254000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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