[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 February 21 issued 2331 UT on 20 Feb 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 21 10:31:48 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 20 February. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR2802
and AR2803. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the
next three UT days, 21-23 February. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available satellite images. On UT day 20 February,
the solar wind speed was at moderately elevated levels, varying
in the range of 400 km/s to 600 km/s. The current solar wind
speed is near 550 km/s. This disturbed solar wind condition is
caused by a large southern polar coronal hole. The total IMF
(Bt) was in the range of 6 nT - 12 nT; the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) was mostly negative, varying in the range +6/-6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly elevated
due to the coronal hole effects during the next three UT days,
21-23 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 15 32333433
Cocos Island 12 32223333
Darwin 12 22333332
Townsville 16 33333433
Learmonth 15 32333433
Alice Springs 13 22333432
Gingin 21 32334543
Canberra 13 22333432
Hobart 19 23444432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Feb :
Macquarie Island 38 23556633
Casey 27 55433434
Mawson 37 34533565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 201- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 19 February
and is current for 20-21 Feb. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 20
February. Unsettled to storm levels were observed in the Antarctic
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
unsettled to active today, UT day 21 February, due to coronal
hole effects. Isolated minor storm periods are also possible.
Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline gradually to
mostly unsettled levels on 22 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT day 21 February. The degraded conditions are due
to recent and expected increases in geomagnetic activity. Mostly
normal HF propagation conditions are expected from 22 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 19 February
and is current for 20-21 Feb. On UT day 20 February, MUFs in
the Australian region were moderately depressed to near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be depressed on
UT days 21-22 February in response to the current disturbed geomagnetic
conditions. Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 49900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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