[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 15 10:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 February. The
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be very low over the next three UT days, 15-17 February. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite
images. On UT day 14 February, the solar wind speed decreased
from 490 km/s to 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
2-5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was
+2/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background
to slightly enhanced levels on UT days 15-17 February due coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11201000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 3 11211101
Learmonth 2 11211000
Alice Springs 2 11211001
Gingin 1 10101000
Canberra 2 01201001
Hobart 2 11202100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01101000
Casey 8 33322111
Mawson 7 33321110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2324 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 14 February. Quiet to unsettled levels observed in
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT days 15-17 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over the next three UT days 15-17 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 2
Feb 12
Mar 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly
values during UT day 14 February. Sporadic E layers were observed,
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 15-17 February.
Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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