[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 February 21 issued 2331 UT on 15 Feb 2021

Tue Feb 16 10:31:50 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 February. The 
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next three UT days, 16-18 February. No 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available satellite 
images. On UT day 15 February, the solar wind speed slightly 
increased from 314 km/s to 350 km/s. This is due to a High Speed 
Stream associated with an extension of the north polar coronal 
hole (positive polarity). The total IMF (Bt) varied between 0/8 
nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was +5/-7 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be remain near nominal 
levels on UT day 16 February. Then the solar wind speed is expected 
to return to background levels on UT days 17-18 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101122
      Cocos Island         3   -1101121
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Learmonth            3   11101122
      Alice Springs        2   20001112
      Gingin               4   11101131
      Canberra             2   11110012
      Hobart               3   11111012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000011
      Casey               11   33421222
      Mawson              23   21112266

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2110 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb     7    Quiet
18 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 15 February. Quiet to storm levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 16 February and then 
mostly quiet on UT days 17-18 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are 
expected on UT day 16 February. Mostly normal propagation conditions 
are expected on UT days 17-18 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Feb    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values
18 Feb     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values during UT day 15 February. Sporadic E layers were observed, 
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 16-18 February. 
Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.