[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 13 10:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 February. The 
solar disk is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next three UT days, 13-15 February. A 
narrow CME was observed in STEREO imagery after 12/1354UT. There 
is a large gap in SOHO imagery between 12/1154UT-1806UT. This 
CME is unlikely to be geoeffective, however analysis will continue 
when more data become available. No other Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed in the available satellite images. A large filament 
in SE quadrant is monitored for any eruption. On 12 February, 
the solar wind speed was below 360 km/s. The total IMF, Bt varied 
between 3-7 nT and the Bz range was mostly +/-3 nT with a minor 
southward excursion up to -5 nT between 12/15-19 UT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to remain near background levels for most 
of UT day, 13 February. The HSS from the extension of a southern 
polar coronal hole is likely to elevate the solar wind speed 
from late today, 13 February. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain enhanced on 14-15 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11100222
      Cocos Island         2   01000121
      Darwin               3   11100212
      Townsville           6   12111223
      Learmonth            5   12100322
      Alice Springs        3   11100212
      Gingin               3   11100222
      Canberra             3   01011222
      Hobart               3   02101212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   01011221
      Casey                9   33311222
      Mawson              16   22211236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
14 Feb    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
15 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 12 February. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected to 
increase to unsettled and possible active levels from late today, 
13 February due coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal Hf propagation conditions are expected 
over the next three UT days 13-15 February.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Feb    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 12 February. Sporadic E layers were 
observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 13-15 February. 
Sporadic E occurrences are likely to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 335 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    32700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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