[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 February 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 12 10:30:11 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 February. The 
visible solar disk is spotless with no NOAA numbered active regions. 
There were no Earth directed CMEs visible in the coronagraph 
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next 
three UT days, 12-14 February. On 11 February, the solar wind 
speed returned to nominal levels between 322 km/s and 357 km/s. 
The peak total IMF (Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +4/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
remain at background levels on UT days 12-13 February. However 
a patchy extension of the southern polar coronal hole will move 
into geoeffective position on UT day 14 February, causing solar 
wind speed to increase to moderate levels between 400 km/s and 
500 km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11120201
      Cocos Island         2   11110200
      Darwin               3   11110202
      Townsville           5   22220211
      Learmonth            2   11020201
      Alice Springs        3   11120201
      Gingin               2   11120100
      Canberra             2   11120100
      Hobart               1   01110100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   01110000
      Casey                9   24331111
      Mawson               4   22121110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0001 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     5    Quiet
13 Feb     5    Quiet
14 Feb    17    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 11 February. Geomagnetic conditions in the Antarctic 
region were mostly quiet to unsettled with one active period 
recorded at one station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet on UT days 12-13 February and then quiet to 
active on UT day 14 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
UT day 11 February. For the next three UT days, 12-14 February, 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Feb    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      2
Feb      12
Mar      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 11 February. Sporadic E layers were 
observed, strong at times. For the next three UT days, 12-14 
February, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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